Step 2 Score Predictor

NBME 14 to Step 2 CK conversion

Based on 1,559 real score reports that included a NBME 14 result. On average, students went on to score about 8 points higher on the real exam than on this form. Used alone, a NBME 14 score predicts the real result with a typical error of about ±5.9 points. Combining two or more tests is meaningfully more accurate.

Each dot is one real report: their NBME 14 result against the Step 2 CK score they went on to get. Hover or tap a dot to see that person's full test list. r = 0.71, n = 1,521.

Table and calculator assume the test was taken about 9 days before the exam, the typical timing in the underlying reports. Taking it closer to test day shifts the prediction; the full predictor uses your exact timing and every other test you have taken.

Common questions

Does NBME 14 underpredict your Step 2 score?

In real score reports, students scored about 8 points higher on the actual exam than on NBME 14, so the form runs conservative on average. The conversion above already corrects for this.

How accurate is NBME 14 alone at predicting Step 2?

A single NBME 14 score predicts the real result with a typical error of about ±5.9 points. Combining several practice tests is meaningfully more accurate, which is what the full predictor does.

Get a real prediction, not a rule of thumb

The full predictor combines all of your practice tests with their timing, shows calibrated probability ranges, and was the most accurate of every predictor tested against real scores. See the head-to-head comparison.

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