Step 2 Score Predictor

NBME 16 to Step 2 CK conversion

Based on 87 real score reports that included a NBME 16 result. On average, students went on to score about 3 points higher on the real exam than on this form. This form is still new, so single-test accuracy cannot be ranked confidently yet. Early reports put it in line with the other recent NBME forms.

Each dot is one real report: their NBME 16 result against the Step 2 CK score they went on to get. Hover or tap a dot to see that person's full test list. r = 0.72, n = 86.

Table and calculator assume the test was taken about 7 days before the exam, the typical timing in our data. Taking it closer to test day shifts the prediction; the full predictor uses your exact timing and every other test you have taken.

Common questions

Does NBME 16 underpredict your Step 2 score?

In real score reports, students scored about 3 points higher on the actual exam than on NBME 16, so the form runs conservative on average. The conversion above already corrects for this.

Is NBME 16 predictive of the real exam?

The form is still new, so its single-test accuracy cannot be ranked confidently yet. Early reports put it in line with the other recent NBME forms.

Get a real prediction, not a rule of thumb

The full predictor combines all of your practice tests with their timing, shows calibrated probability ranges, and was the most accurate of every predictor we benchmarked against real scores. See the head-to-head comparison.

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